• Election day is May 29.
• Global and CTV News will co-host the Leaders Debate on May 18 at 6:00 p.m.

The midpoint of the election campaign has been punctuated by polling data that momentarily had the NDP in the lead for the first time, and the NDP’s release of a costed platform - which has invited criticisms of its fiscal record.

Last weekend, Abacus Data released a poll showing the NDP leading in the popular vote by 43% to 35%. The results were an outlier; others continue to report a tie in support. A leaked Janet Brown Opinion Research poll predicted the UCP winning a decisive 56 seats over 31 for the NDP. These results are outliers too. A subsequent Abacus has since blunted the impact of its earlier report, generating new data reporting the deadlock persists.

Politicians are fond of saying the only poll that matters is on election day. Both parties are taking steps to shore up as much support as possible among swing voters over the remainder of the campaign. The NDP has promised to eliminate the small business tax rate, eschewing an essential revenue stream embraced by social democrats. The UCP has pledged to introduce mandatory treatment for addictions, contrary to the libertarian principle of personal freedom. Neither party has made policy announcements on the issue of climate change, as spring wildfires plague the province.

Economic issues are firm policy ground for the UCP. It has seized on the NDP pledge to increase the corporate tax rate from 8% to 11%, reminding voters of the NDP record in office, which coincided with the oil price collapse and job losses. The UCP has warned this increase would negatively impact Alberta’s global investment competitiveness. The Calgary Chamber of Commerce diplomatically applauded the UCP’s commitment to maintaining the corporate tax rate and the NDP's commitment to eliminating the small business tax.

Concerns over social services, community building and healthcare were identified as priorities for voters at a recent Alberta Municipalities forum. The NDP is leveraging its trust on these issues through attack ads alleging the UCP wants to introduce further privatized health care.

Trust in leaders, particularly Smith, has become the central question in the election as the NDP emphasizes it as the main ballot concern. These narratives will play out in the remaining days of the campaign. The UCP is likely to focus on economic and community safety policies as the NDP attempts to leverage Notley’s perceived advantage on issues of trust and accountability.